As we come to the end of 2022 following the the midterm elections, Democrats are thankful that they did not suffer the massive losses that the mainstream media kept promoting. But they will come to wish that certain decisions by voters had been different. I posted many times during 2022 that Democrats needed to pick up three Senate seats to 53 and they needed to hold their majority in the House. As we close out the year Democrats picked up only one Senate seat and they lost their majority in the House.
Had they spent a little more in North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Ohio, all of which turned out to be real close losses, they would be able to negate the whims of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema in the Senate. As for the control of the House of Representatives, a large part of the narrow majority Republicans won can be directly attributed to the horrendous attempts to gerrymander the districts in the state of New York which were rejected by the courts and redrawn in a way at that pitted Democrats against each other in certain districts and Republicans picked up a number of new seats.
The Democrats did not have a bad midterm, but without election reform being passed before this Congress ends, 2024 might be brutal because they will have 23 Senate seats open and Republicans will have only 11. The House majority is a toss up for now, but Republican extremists will overplay their hand with bogus retaliatory investigations. If they follow through with impeachment hearings, shut down the government, or refuse to raise the debt limit while trying to cut Medicare and Social Security, the only thing that will save them in 2024 is a disastrous SCOTUS ruling that further imperils voting rights and allows states to limit access to voting for 18-29 year old citizens.
When looking at the post midterm election voting trends it was the 18-29 voters that blunted the anticipated ‘Red Wave’. There was a decline in Black/Hispanic/Asian voters 30-65 and 65+. More Hispanic voters in ‘Red States’ voted for Republicans. The most amazing trend was that more voters 65+ went Republican with the threat of cutting Medicare and Social Security being a stated GOP goal.
It’s interesting that these people vote against their own self interests or in the case of Wisconsin, don’t show up to vote at all. If Black voters who stayed at home in Milwaukee had turned out to vote, Mandela Barnes would be the Senator-elect. If more Black voters had turned out in North Carolina perhaps Cheri Beasley would be the Senator-elect. Surely just a few more Black voters in Ohio might have gotten Tim Ryan elected to the Senate. Those are three Senate seats that would have made a huge difference during the next two years and will make a huge difference in 2024.
Allow me to address a final thought on the midterm outcomes. People think they understand numbers but they don’t understand them in terms of politics. The Democrats controlled the Senate because Biden is President and Kamala Harris is the President of the Senate. She gets to cast the deciding vote in the event of a tie on legislation.
Joe Manchin is the only Democrat elected on a statewide basis in West Virginia. This is a state that went overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016 and in 2020. He is not a very progressive member of the Democratic caucus and in a 50/50 Senate he knows he has the power to pull back legislation he feels he cannot support back home. Let’s not forget that he also blocked legislation that would not support his personal business interests.
Kyrsten Sinema, was elected to the Senate from Arizona. She was elected with the support of Democrats of all stripes, moderates and progressives along with independents. Once in office Sinema quickly made a deal with Mitch McConnell that she would not support any change in the ‘Senate Filibuster Rule ‘ if he consented to being the ‘Minority Leader’. The Filibuster Rule allows Republicans to stifle legislation unless 60 or more Senator agree to debate it and then vote on it.
Sinema then then used her position to block major legislation like the $3 Trillion dollar social and infrastructure ‘Build Back Better Bill’ or position herself as champion of bipartisanism standing against the Biden agenda and working across the aisle to pass the watered down $1 trillion dollar ‘Infrastructure Bill’ in a way that presented herself as the lynchpin to ‘Take It Or Leave It’ bills when Biden needed wins of some kind. In doing this Sinema has become the lowest polling elected official in Arizona. If she wants to be reelected, she cannot win a Democratic primary. She cannot win a Republican primary so her recent move to ditch the Democratic Party to become an Independent is solely a move for survival. She’s daring the Democratic Party to field a challenger and risk losing the Senate seat to a Republican in a three way race.
If Black voters in the states I mentioned before had turned out, this move by Sinema would not be relevant. Democrats need to refocus on Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters from 18+. They need to target voters who vote against their own interest at the ballot box and by sitting on their butts at home the whole election cycle.
Last thing….I loved seeing Chuck Schumer, the Senate Majority Leader rushing out to welcome Raphael Warnock back to the Capitol possibly to make up for his open mic comment to Joe Biden that the Warnock campaign was going downhill in Georgia.
https://www.deseret.com/2022/12/2/23459510/black-and-latino-voters-shift-towards-republicans-in-midterms
“The “red ripple” that barely carried Republicans to a House majority in last month’s midterms contained a notable rightward shift among voters of color in some parts of the country. As Republicans continue to try to make gains among this diverse group of voters, their success in some states may point the way to a larger shift nationally.
While collectively making up less than 40% of the population, Black, Latino and Asian American communities found themselves at the center of a rightward shift in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Florida and New York City. Though Democrats still won these voters at the national level, it was by a significantly smaller margin than in the last midterm elections in 2018, suggesting that Black, Latino and Asian American voters cannot be taken for granted by Democrats and that Republicans may still be able to build on their 2020 gains among voters of color.
Black voters remained one of the Democratic Party’s most reliable constituencies in this midterm election, even as their support for the party decreased by four percentage points, from 90% to 86%, since the last midterm elections in 2018, according to exit polls conducted by the National Election Pool and Edison Research.
Democrats saw a significantly larger loss among Latino voters. In 2022, 60% of Latino voters cast their ballots for Democrats, down from 69% in 2018. At 39%, the share of Latino voters who cast their ballots for the GOP in the 2022 midterms was the largest in two decades, and 10 percentage points more than in 2018. The shift was most dramatic among Latino men — Democrats won Latino men by 29 percentage points in 2018 but by just 8 percentage points in 2022.
But it could be that the demographic most eager to shed their historically blue affiliation for red was Asian Americans, whose support for Democrats dropped precipitously since the last midterms, possibly due to concerns over rising crime and changes to the education system. Nationally, the share of Asian American voters who cast their vote for Democrats fell from 77% in 2018 to 58% in 2022. “
https://phys.org/news/2022-12-record-high-young-people-voted-midterms.html
“Implications for 2024 and beyond
Millions more young people born after 1996 will reach voting age by 2024. Their political power will only grow in the years to come, while those over the age of 65 will make up a declining share of the population and the electorate.
What that shift means for election results will depend on how political parties and other political and civic groups engage young people.
In recent years, most young people have voted for Democrats. This is a shift from just 20 years ago, when voters under 30 split their vote fairly evenly between Democrat and Republican candidates.
But Republicans lag behind Democrats when it comes to directly communicating with young people. Just less than 1 in 3 people aged 18 to 29 said they heard from the Republican Party or the Donald Trump campaign in the month before Election Day in 2020. Half of young people, conversely, said they heard from the Democratic Party or Joe Biden’s campaign.
There are other actions and policies that could get more people under 30 to the polls.
Preregistration, which allows young people to register to vote at age 16 so they’re ready to cast a ballot once they turn 18, can increase youth turnout, but it’s only available in 16 states. Other policies and efforts by election administrators to get more young people to vote can vary widely across states, leading to major differences in participation. In 2020, youth turnout varied from 32% in South Dakota to 67% in New Jersey.
Young people’s estimated 27% turnout rate in 2022 marks a near-record for an age group that has historically participated at lower rates in midterm elections. Whether this is a long-term trend or not will depend on whether communities and political groups implement the changes that research suggests can lead to sustained increases in youth voter turnout.”