This is my last post until after the election. There isn’t much new to say, so let me summarize my take on the data I follow. I don’t rely on the mainstream news media or listen to local news channels. These sources simply report on superficial top-line numbers without doing much analysis.
I follow sources that rely on real data to help audiences understand where we stand in the election cycle. I will share data that has been collected from early voting exit polls. These represent voters who shared their choices for the Presidency.
This recent CES/YouGov poll interviewed almost 50,000 people suggesting a 4-point lead for Harris, ( Note most polls interview as few as 350 people but not more than 2500.)
A recent Marist poll of people who have already voted
Several different polls this cycle including Republican-funded polls have flooded the news environment. Despite that, several non-partisan polls have remained consistent since the Democratic Convention.
There are still some undecided voters out there.
No one wants a repeat of the 2016 election. The Harris/Walz campaign is still working to attract new voters. This effort was helped by the Trump campaign with the racist comments made at the Madison Square Garden event, about Puerto Rico and Black carving out watermelons for Halloween. Those comments have garnered a swift backlash.
Finally, the Harris/Walz campaign inherited a massive ground infrastructure from Joe Biden. They are geared up to turn out the vote through election day. Watch for the vote totals reported for Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. Either could hold a surprise as they are regarded as Republican-safe or leaning states. However, they have fallen into play in recent weeks.
Watch out for the Senate races in both Florida and Texas. There might be a surprise or two there. I won’t post again until after the election results have been called. My advice is simple. If you have already voted and talked to the people you felt comfortable encouraging to vote find a couple of good books to read. Binge-watch a couple of your favorite series or movies. Put the election worries aside now. You have done all you can do.
A Reasonable Point of View 