I am not usually the guy who uses sport analogies but as far as the November elections go, this will be the best way to understand my thinking. Most non-racquet sports are broken down into 4 quarters. We’re at the conclusion of the 1st half (the first two quarters). It is basically halftime.
Both teams, Democrats and MAGA go to their locker rooms (The nominating Conventions) and then hit the campaign trail culminating in the November 5 election. Some states will allow ‘Early Voting’ to begin as soon as September 20, 2024, according to ‘Ballotpedia.org. Those voters who are already certain of their choice will take advantage of the early option.
As of now, Trump has named his VP choice. Trump is also keeping medical details of his injury under the same blanket of secrecy that he kept his tax returns during his 2016 campaign and presidency. Subsequent court cases have determined that he defrauded the state of New York of millions in taxes. Should he fail to regain the Presidency he will likely be found to have also evaded paying significant taxes to the US Government as well.
On the other side of the election contest, President Joe Biden, has been facing a bit of a challenge. According to most of the mainstream media outlets, He needs to step aside and allow for an alternative candidate to replace the Biden/Harris team. Most of this urging is coming from his fellow White Male Democrats. The excuse is his poor showing in the first debate he had a few weeks ago.
Let me be clear, the CEO’s and top management of most of the TV/Cable Networks, Newspapers, social media, and internet news organizations donated to Trump. They support his tax cuts and reporting on him generates revenue. They are not honest brokers of real journalism. They also pay for the polls that have constantly been reported for the past year.
That polling is not actually predictive of election outcome at this point. Aggregate polling in September and October will be reflective of the mood of the voters. Early and absentee voting will begin and we’ll have a better sense of how the campaigns are preforming. While the ‘MSM’ hypes polling favorable to Trump, the more credible national polls shows it’s between 2%-4% points. That’s within the margin of error. While the MSM reports general polling, more credible organizations report ‘Likely Voters’. They give more demographically important information.
Unfortunately there is a new dynamic for this election. It is beginning to appear that White Male Democrats want Biden to step aside and take his VP choice with him. While the MSM keeps coming up with polls suggesting there are alternatives to Biden, some men in Democratic leadership are afraid he will win, not finish out his term and allow VP Harris to become President. Then she can run as an incumbent in 2028.
Then what worries them is if Hakim Jefferies becomes the Speaker of the House. This country could then have a person of color as President and as Speaker of the House. The line of Presidential succession would have a person of color in two of the constitutionally ordained top three positions.
I am thinking that Joe Biden will refuse to step aside. Will he think about it? Yeah he will. But I believe that he knows how much he owes his Presidency to the coalition of voters including Black women, Independents, Progressives, LGBTQ, Asians, and Hispanics. The best chance to secure his legacy is to keep this coalition in tact to beat back the White Christian Nationalists, Theocrats, and Oligarchs.
Democrats have to also win the majority of both houses of Congress so they can codify abortion rights, outlaw gerrymandering as it stands now, implement new Voting Rights legislation, and reform the Supreme Court. Given how they ruled on the Immunity issue they should expand the court within the first 6 months of Biden’s 2nd term.
I heard an idea today that suggested that Biden could test that immunity and issue an ‘Executive Order’ to expand the court immediately. The additional Justices could then vote on new ethics rules for Justices. He could also issue an ‘Executive Order’ on police reforms that could drop ‘Qualified Immunity’ and make officers give up a part of their pensions when their state, county, or local governments have to pay settlements for abuses of authority or cause unjustified injury or death to citizens.
Biden is in the perfect position to run for reelection, win and institute some major reforms in partnership with Congress, that will change the dynamic of living in America as far away from the policies of the Heritage Foundation and it’s Project 2025, or Lenard Leo’s Federalist Society, or Q Anon, and of course Trump’s MAGA Movement as possible.
It’s Biden or Trump. The notion that there is an alternative is dishonest. If there was an alternative, they would have run against Biden in the primaries and won. No serious minded hopeful wanted to be President at this point. They know that 2028 is the most viable time for the next generation to take over. For now, they are willing to play a supporting role.
If Biden steps aside Trump will win for sure. Democrats know this. The old White males in leadership don’t care, because, they are entitled old White men willing to ignore what the SCOTUS has set in place. Trump will never step down, not with the legal issues he faces if he did. Those Democrats just cannot seem to grasp, the GOP theocrats, don’t play by any previously accepted rules.
They want their own fiefdoms, their own power, and they don’t intend to share it.
A Reasonable Point of View 