We often hear the media inform us of what the polls have to say about the upcoming 2024 election. They report the numbers breathlessly. They ignore the notion that the polls have been largely wrong for decades.
They report Trump saying that he leads Biden in the polls by a lot without challenging the statement. How do you let a guy who told over 30,000 documented lies during his four years in office say anything as if it is credible?
While the twice impeached and four-time indicted candidate may win the Republican nomination walking away, the media does not consistently report that his general election chances are already questionable. Here is an excerpt taken from an article on the 538 blog published Aug. 16, 2023….
“Trump’s Indictments Might Be Hurting Him — Just Not In The Primary Polls By G. Elliott Morris
The fallout for Trump may get worse in the general election
Trump’s indictments for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, meanwhile, could have additional political costs, particularly if he wins the Republican nomination. GOP primary voters might not care about allegations of interference, but general election voters are another story: Two studies of election results in the 2022 midterms found that the Republican candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives who received endorsements from Trump or voiced support for his election denialism performed worse than Republican House candidates who did not. In a CBS/YouGov poll conducted Aug. 2-4, a majority of adults said the indictments against Trump were “upholding the rule of law” (57 percent) and an effort to “defend democracy” (52 percent), although more than half also said the indictments and investigations were trying to stop the Trump campaign (59 percent).
And of course, these are just the indictments. Potential fallout from the trials for each series of charges (which could start as soon as January) could be even more significant. Not only will the public see an actual prosecution, Trump will also be forced to divert focus from running for president to appear in court — which could distract from his campaign. In what will be a messy next 12 months for Trump, the costs of his behavior may become clearer.”
The mainstream or legacy media, now owned by big money interests, also reports to us that if Republicans walked away from Trump any other GOP candidate could beat an unpopular Joe Biden. What they don’t tell you are these three things:
- Biden is more popular right now as President than Trump ever was. Most Presidents at this point in their terms garner less than 50% favorability.
- If Trump were not the GOP nominee for 2024, MAGA voters would stay home. That means the GOP would loss 20% to 35% of their support across the country. That would impact down ballot elections and control of both houses of Congress and possibly state level legislatures and Governorships.
- Independent voters, who are not crazy about Biden, won’t vote for Trump in 2024. They may also be skeptical of a third party at this time, that has the potential to earn Trump a 2nd term.
The only issue that really needs to be addressed is overcoming voter suppression efforts in swing states. So extra efforts need to be taken in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. Democrats need to compete in all 50 states, but the four I listed need extra attention. There has to be grassroots voter turnout on the ground that overwhelm the laws put in place to discourage voters.
Democrats will have to be aggressive about flipping a couple of seats to replace the Senate seat Joe Manchin now holds in West Virginia, because he is going to lose it. It’s not as if he was a reliable vote anyway. Democrats have to also take the seat Kyrsten Sinema holds in Arizona. She too was not a reliable vote. Both sought personal gain by accepting campaign contributions to stymie progressive Democratic reforms for healthcare, taxing the wealthy, minimum wage, prescription drugs, fossil fuel subsidies, and most important, voting rights reforms.
These are not things the media will promote. One other issue I need to mention. Black males in the 18-35 range have increased their voting percentage for Trump in the last two two Presidential election cycles. Its a trend rooted in ‘Toxic Masculinity’, anti-LGBTQ beliefs, and Christian religious influence.
While this trend towards Trump’s Authoritarianism, has grown to about 7%, when coupled with the lower voter turnout within that demographic, it can weigh heavily in some states.
The key point is that if your only source of political analysis is the legacy news, cable news, or social media, you’re not getting reliable information. Actually, you’re getting false equivalency discussions or outright disinformation. I do access Roland Martin and the Meidas Touch Network for their more reality based biases. The last place I would turn to is any news source rooted in religious doctrine. Those sources are usually misogynistic, homophobic, and subtly racist at best.
Below I have included other information and sources to support my comments. I sourced PBS, Vox, 270 to Win, and USA Today for this posting.
“About half of Americans — 49 percent — said they approve of how Biden has served as president so far, less than two months into his presidency, according to the latest poll. But as was the case with his predecessor, whose last year in office was marred by the pandemic, much of that support comes from people who identify as members of his own party. Among Democrats, Biden’s approval rating was 87 percent. But only 11 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of independents said they approved of the president.
Another 42 percent of Americans disapprove of what Biden has done so far as president, including 81 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of independents.
Still, Biden currently has a higher job approval rating than former President Donald Trump ever reached during his four years in the White House, according to Marist polling data. And support for Biden seems to be growing. In this latest poll, 52 percent of Americans said they had a favorable impression of him. That’s up from 41 percent in October 2019 in the midst of Trump’s first impeachment. Since then, Biden has inched up in favorability.
The White House is overall better esteemed than Capitol Hill at present, with 41 percent of Americans saying they approve of the job Democrats are doing in Congress, and just 28 percent saying they approve of the job Republicans are doing. The approval rating for Democrats is up significantly from 34 percent in January 2019, after the last Congress had just been sworn in, but 51 percent of Americans still disapprove of what Democrats are doing, including 16 percent of Democratic voters and 86 percent of Republicans.
Republicans in Congress face steeper job disapproval, with 64 percent of Americans saying they do not like what they are seeing, an increase of 6 percentage points over January 2019, including 38 percent of Republicans and 85 percent of Democrats.
Independents also largely disapproved of lawmakers from both parties, with 56 percent disapproving of Democrats in Congress and 63 percent disapproving of Republicans.”
https://www.vox.com/2020/11/4/21537966/trump-black-voters-exit-polls
“Pew Research Center study on the 2016 election’s demographic breakdowns of verified voters was published not months after that contest, but in August 2018. AP and Edison pollsters are still adjusting the weighting on their data to ensure it’s as accurate as possible, but here’s what we know right now:
- Black voters made up about 11 or 12 percent of the electorate, according to the AP and Edison, respectively.
- The AP found that 90 percent of Black voters went to Biden and 8 percent to Trump.
- Edison Research determined that 87 percent of Black voters voted for Biden and 12 percent for Trump.
- Both found Black men were more likely than Black women to support Trump. In the AP’s case, 12 percent of Black men voters backed Trump, compared to 6 percent of Black women; in Edison’s case, 18 percent of Black men voters cast ballots for Trump, while 8 percent of Black women did the same.
The election is still very close, and his gains with Black voters may not be enough to win Trump the presidency, but it is certainly enough to make Democrats wonder about their strategy with Black voters — particularly Black men.
About 87% of Black voters nationwide chose Biden over Trump, according to preliminary national exit polling. Those early exit polls show that 19% of Black men voted for Trump, as did 9% of Black women.
An Associated Press VoteCast survey showed overall larger Black support for Biden — 90%. According to the AP survey, 12% of Black men voted for Trump, while only 6% of Black women supported him.
Among all voters, Biden won Detroit, capturing 94% of the vote while Trump received only 5%. In Philadelphia, Biden grabbed 81% compared to 18% for Trump. Philly’s diverse surrounding suburbs also outperformed for Biden. Atlanta residents backed Biden over Trump 73% to 26%.
At least one preliminary snapshot shows that Trump made slight inroads with Black voters, compared with 2016 results. And while final numbers may show a negligible Trump bump this year among African American voters, exit polls are notoriously inaccurate, especially when the final vote count hasn’t been weighted.
Trump’s lack of leadership and incompetence allowed the deadly coronavirus to run rampant, disproportionately affecting Black people. Trump has attacked Black athletes, Black journalists and Black female members of Congress. He has called African countries “s—holes.” He has aligned himself with white nationalists, called Black Lives Matter a symbol of hate, and answered cries for freedom during racial justice protests this summer with a “law and order” rhetoric.
In April, when cornonavirus-induced unemployment numbers peaked nationally at 14.7% — the highest rate since the Great Depression — unemployment levels for Black people soared to 16.7%.
In September, 12.1% of Black Americans were out of work, compared with 7% of whites.
Under Trump, Black folks have lost a lot.”
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A Reasonable Point of View 